In his first blog for us, Dominic F recounts how he and his fellow Texperts experienced the Grand National weekend…

Saturday April 5th 2008 saw the 165th running of the Grand National, arguably the most famous horse race in the world. Working the few days before the race and the afternoon building up to it, I saw quite a few requests for tips in the queue and, where I could, I dealt with them myself and provided the nag-knowledge-needy public with my own tips (properly sourced of course!) – large priced value bet Black Apalachi (best price 66/1) and the eventual winner Comply Or Die (best price 12/1). I hope that Texperts made some punters a few quid!

Bragging aside, the real reason for this blog entry is an excuse to talk facts, statistics and trivia. Knowledge is power. We should have ALL worked out that Comply Or Die would win the race, because of recent trends:

The last time a horse won with odds longer than 33/1 was in 1995 (Royal Athlete, 40/1) and it has only happened three times in the last 40 years. So we’d have been fairly safe eliminating all horses priced at greater than 33/1 on the morning of the race, leaving us with half the field, right off the bat.

The most significant factor in picking a winner is weight. In the last half century, only the great Red Rum has won carrying more than 11st 5lbs. In the last 25 years, only Hedgehunter has been victorious carrying more than 11st and that was only 11st 1lb. Experts absolutely insist that the ideal weight range for a National winner is 10st – 11st. We could have further narrowed the field to 10 potential winners then, by ruling out Butler’s Cabin, Simon, Turko, L’Ami, Vodka Bleu, Mr Pointment, Hedgehunter, Chelsea Harbour, Slim Pickings and Snowy Morning.

Every winner of the race since Gay Trip in 1970 has previously won over three miles or further, so we could also have discounted King John’s Castle, leaving us with nine.

Age is an important statistic in choosing a winner, no seven year old has won the race since 1940 and only three eight year olds have won the race in the last three decades. In addition, only two teenagers have ever won the race and only ten 12 year olds have succeeded. We could have happily ruled out Philson Run, Mon Mome and Cloudy Lane with this information, reducing the field to six.

Contrary to popular belief, the race has not been such a punting lottery in recent years – 13 of the last 17 winners were in amongst the eight shortest priced nags in the market. Using this statistic, we could have slashed the field to just Comply Or Die and Bewleys Berry.

For those that like to pick horses simply on the colour of the jockey’s silks, green is the way forward - half of the winning jockeys in the ten years leading up to the 2008 race have been wearing green. That ruled out the cream and black colours of Dennis O’Regan on board Bewleys Berry, leaving us with the obvious victor – Comply Or Die. Seemingly, quite a few punters had come to the same conclusion as the night before the race, you could get 12/1 about Timmy Murphy piloting the winner but a huge market move saw his mount backed into 7/1 joint favouritism.

So for the 2009 Grand National, keep these facts in mind, and remember - knowledge is (horse) power!

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